MIDWEST
1st and 2nd Round
The play-in game features Morehead State and Alabama State, with their aforementioned star. Although no bracket in the history of gambling requires people to pick this game, I will add it to the list simply because this game shows the committee's sense of humor. Think of the game's apparel sales - many College Humor fans already own Morehead State gear for obvious pervert reasons, and who the hell wouldn't love to buy an Alabama State jersey with the name "Kickingstallionsims" on the back. Genius. That's why Alabama State will win, followed by a thrashing to Louisville in which Terrence Williams and Earl Clark confuse half the stadium by holding a during game Slam Dunk competition.
Ohio State over Siena, who lost all sleeper value by having to play OSU in Columbus West. This is the same reason OSU will keep very close to Louisville, but run out of gas when B.J. Mullens thinks his mustache belongs to Adam Morrison, forcing him to break down and cry at midcourt.
One note: Louisville scares the crap out of me. They've lost Western Kentucky, Minnesota, UNLV (at home!) and Notre Dame (by 33!). I could totally see them winning it all, or crapping the bed and losing in the 2nd round to Ohio State. I will say this: One of the top seeds is going down in the second round. Just too many tough match-ups; one out of four has to go down. Do I have the balls to say who? Stay tuned.
Utah over Arizona, who has become everyone's favorite "12 over a 5" upset, even though this is the same Arizona team that fans love every year, only to see them lose to West Virginia as a 10 last year, and Purdue as a 9 the year before. Remember picking them in the first round both of those years? STOP DOING THAT!
Wake Forest will play their bipolar best in a win over Cleveland State, where they will trail by at least 12 at one point, and lead by at least 15 at another point. Katy Perry's "Hot and Cold" was actually written about Wake Forest, which is why they will lose to Utah in the second round despite having more talent.
Kansas wins a first round road game against NDSU and several thousand rowdy Bison fans who already have several outs to make this game sound like the biggest deal ever. I live in Fargo, and I just know something has to happen that will make the Bison rubes whip it out and see who's is bigger with the U of North Dakota. I don't think (and I certainly don't hope) it's with a win over Kansas, but I could see KU going to the Final Four, causing message boards to erupt with "See? See how good were are? We only lost to a Final Four team by 12 points! Suck on that SUE! But hey, you still have hockey." It just seems like the most probable thing to happen.
West Virginia beats Dayton, then loses to Kansas in the 2nd round. As a consolation prize, West Virginia wins the "Nick Johnson's favorite sleeper until the brackets actually came out" award. Tough break for the Mountaineers.
USC dismantles Doug Flutie and BC, then loses a yawn-fest to Michigan State. As much as I love the 8 and 9 seeds to knock off a 1, I hate all of the 7 and 10 seeds. Normally, there's at least one shoe-in second round upset of a 2 seed. I can't find one this year, and almost talked myself into USC in this matchup. Then I looked at my bracket last year with USC in the Elite Eight, and vomited Orange Juice and Mayo all over the floor.
Semifinals
Louisville over Utah, who will play the role of this year's "Mountain West team that flew under the radar when experts made their picks, then gained steam into the second weekend, only to go out with a whimper against a better team."
Kansas upends Michigan State on the scoreboard, but Tom Izzo wins his head-to-head matchup with Bill Self to see who's face can look more like they're taking a dump.
Final
Kansas over Louisville. I like this Louisville team, but I just have a hunch about Kansas. Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins will be the annual players from the same team to climb up the NBA Draft board with a good tourney run, the way CDR and Derrick Rose did last year. Bill Self has some major karma as College Basketball's best coach, and can cement it with this team that was supposed to be a rebuilding project. And don't forget those Bison fans in the first round, who will say they were the tough test that made KU strong enough for a Final Four run. Seriously, the Bison Media blog. Read it in two weeks.
EAST
1st and 2nd Round
Pittsburgh rolls over East Tennessee State, then plays the REAL Tennessee team in a tough fought game. Again, I like Pitt to win, but Bruce Pearl and his great porn director name will not go down easy (no pun intended). Seriously, did any conference get urinated on by the committee more than the SEC? Only three teams, LSU, the regular season champ and ranked in the Top 25 is an 8 seed, playing the toughest 9 seed in Butler (who also deals with more than their fair share of tournament committee piss). Tennessee a 9, and Mississippi State a 13??? I know they weren't great in the regular season, but you win the SEC tournament, finish 23-12, and get put on the same line as Akron? The SEC was down, but I was looking forward to picking all these teams to lose in an upset, not just chalk it up like everyone else.
Florida State will knock off Wisconsin in the tournament's ugliest game. One thing to note about the Big Ten: they play so sloppy that one of these teams could contact the ghost of Tom Coverdale and pull a 2002 Indiana type run to the title game. If they get the right teams to play down to their poopy style, something like that could happen. As for this game (as well as five other first rounders including the Big Ten), I just don't see it.
Their game is in Boise, which for whatever reason, has become the Bermuda Triangle of the NCAA Tournament. Something crazy always seems to happen there (Hampton over Iowa State anyone?) and this year I could see it happening again. That's why I like Portland State over Xavier. And Florida State. Aside from the haunted house factor, Portland State has a sneaky good team. They won at Gonzaga, and lost by only a point to Washington. They made the tourney last year, granted they lost in the first round to Kansas, but at least they've been there before. They have balanced scoring, with four guys averaging double figures, AND they're playing somewhat close to home. Xavier has been good in this tournament for way too long, they're due for an upset. If the Vikings can get by them, I can't see them losing to FSU.
Out in Philly, Villanova gets the biggest home court advantage, while UCLA gets the biggest shaft. Not only are they a 6 seed, they have to play a scrappy VCU team who has some upset cred from two years ago (remember that Duke fans?). I like UCLA to survive that game, and I would like them to beat Nova if it wasn't a road game. With seasoned guys like Josh Shipp and Darren Collison, UCLA has that San Antonio Spur feel to just turn it on come playoff time. Too bad for the Bruins. Oh yeah, and the American Eagles, but at least they still have that clothing line.
Texas over Minnesota in a surprisingly easy first round pick. I want the Gophers to win, I grew up in Minnesota, and I've always loved the basketball team. That's why I see this loss coming from a mile away. You know why? Because it's a winnable game. They're a minor underdog, meaning everyone in Al's Pool will pick them out of homer pride. Unfortunately, in the Minnesota history of sports, this is the part where the letdown comes into play. I hope I'm wrong, it's just that I'm usually not when it comes to the Minnesota letdown. Just too much experience.
I'd love to pick Texas over Duke, I really would. I'd love it more that Angelique would love to rail 20 Pack. But I just can't do it. Texas is garbage, and the only reason they'll even advance is because of the annual Minnesota letdown. I just cracked open a beer. Maybe Binghamton can muster up some Belmont pride and give Duke another scare in the first round, but I doubt it. We've been spoiled by Duke, well, taking a duke the past couple of years in the big dance. We just can't expect them to keep doing it. Look at it this way, at least we can keep rooting against them if they stick around. Glass half full? Anyone?
Semifinals
Portland State's cinderella run ends at the hands of Pittsburgh. It just has to. Meanwhile, this will be about the time that people start to realize how good Sam Young is. Believe me, I have somewhat of a man-crush on DeJuan Blair, but Young is their best player. Maybe it's because he's a senior, and wasn't the best player we'd ever seen ever when he was a freshman, but he averages nearly 20 a game and he does it in entertaining fashion. Get to know him!
Keep hating Duke, because they'll keep winning by knocking off Nova. At least Jay Wright will be dressed better than Mike Shashefski. I mean Krzykewski. What a tool.
Final
Pittsburgh frees us of Kyle Singler and the rest of Duke's Nazi squad. Blue Devil fans use their white hoods to wipe the blue paint off their face, and they return home to burn more crosses and use the Lord's name in vein. Did I mention I'm not much of a Duke guy?
SOUTH
1st and 2nd Round
The toughest 8 or 9 draw of them all was given to the Tar Heels. Butler has proven themselves time and again in this tourney, yet they've only been rewarded with anything higher than a 7 seed one time (a 5 in 2007, when they made it to the Sweet 16!). This is a scary game for the Heels, probably the toughest one they will have in a road to the Final Four. Once again, I don't have the cojones to actually pick Butler, but I will be pulling for them.
Once again, Western Kentucky is a 12 seed, and once again, they will advance. Illinois is about as inconsistent as anyone, and I just can't pick a team who put up only 33 points at home to Penn State. Seriously. The Hilltoppers have everyone back, except for the great Courtney Lee, and Illinois' best player might be hurt. Committee to bracket people - enjoy your gimme 12 over 5 game!
Gonzaga plays Akron, who has been visited by the great LeBron James on a few occassions this season. However, unless the Zips change their name to the Witnesses, and Bron-Bron suits up for them, they aren't going anywhere. Western Kentucky and Gonzaga is an interesting game: it could represent WKU becoming the new "it" team for mid-majors, with them seizing control over Gonzaga in a Rocky over Apollo moment. However, this game is in Portland, very close to home for the Zags, which is why I give them the edge.
Arizona State is my only sleeper team that ended up with a good draw. Temple's been hot, but the Sun Devils have had some good karma all season. They have balance, a go-to guy in James Harden, and after a solid tourney run, they will have the coach in Herb Sendek who gets his named dropped for every major coaching vacancy ala Billy Gillispie.
Syracuse has done this before: make a huge Big East tourney run, gain a whole bunch of steam as the team that's "playing it's best basketball right now," and then be forgotten about by the second weekend. I see more of the same this time. I could almost see them losing to Stephen F. Austin, but he's only one person. Instead, Arizona State will knock off the Orange in Round 2. Although, Cuse was a 3 seed when they won it all in '03...
Speaking of "seen this before," Clemson starts off the season 15-0 for the 17th straight season, only to sink into mediocrity after Christmas. Lucky break for Michigan, who might just give Oklahoma some fits in Round 2. You have to watch out for John Beilein coached teams. In fact, this Michigan team could be that sloppy Big Ten team to make a run, maybe not to the title game, but to the Elite 8. However, Kevin Pittsnogle and Mike Gansey aren't walking through that door to sink a record number of threes for Coach Beilein, so I'll take future L.A. Clipper Blake Griffin and his Sooners.
Semifinals
UNC makes a statement against Gonzaga after their squeeker over Butler. Lawson starts to gain some of his health back, every analyst in the country will jump on their bandwagon as the best team, and Roy Williams will swear in front of Bonnie Bernstein again (Please, I don't ask for much).
Arizona State will take down Oklahoma thanks in large part to James Pendergraph's ability to neutralize Blake Griffin. Although I don't think Griffin will cry, I nominate him for the Adam Morrison award for "most close-ups of a player's face after his team is bounced from the tourney a round earlier than he thought."
Finals
Sendek's Devils bow out to Carolina, who gets into the Final Four for something like the 356th time. Defense will be an issue for the Heels, and Seth Davis will make sure to point this out any time he gets a chance, breaking the record for the "Memphis free-throws" topic from a year ago.
WEST
Chattanooga over UConn! In the spread, that is. The Huskies barely win by about 20, then become my final chance to have the balls to pick a top seed to lose in the 2nd round. I can't do it. Even though Texas A&M almost did it to UCLA last year, I don't even see the Aggies beating a sneaky good team from BYU. Those mormons can shoot, man. If Steve Young could get on Ty Detmer's shoulders to post up against Hasheem Thabeet, maybe, but since they can't, he will wreck the Cougars down low.
It's very hard for me to pick against Northern Iowa, seeing as my buddy Delo is tight with their head coach. I mean, that's the closest thing I can get to a name drop in this whole bracket, other than how I got to interview every player for my alma mater's rival NDSU back in the day. The Panthers will keep it tight with their big ogre down low, Jordan Eglseder, but Purdue has been playing well lately with Robbie Hummel back, and because both Big Ten 5'ers can't lose in the first round.
Washington gets to play close to home against the SEC tourney champion. That still seems odd to me. The Huskies will take it, and also knock off Purdue. The gay guy in me would like to point out that Purdue and Washington will have clashing goldish-yellow colors on their jerseys, and the straight man in me would like to point out that that's why gay people usually don't like sports. If they did, Cuba would never be allowed to wear those wretched red pants in the World Baseball Classic. I'm done now.
Back to crazy Boise, where Marquette survives Utah State. I thought the Golden Eagles would stink something awful when Dominic James, their senior-freaking point guard, tore his ACL and ended his season. But, the Fighting D-Wades have kept every game close. Maybe that means they'll lose this game by a point too, but they've just shown too much heart for me to not pick them to advance at least once.
Missouri outsmarts Randy Wittman's kid and the rest of Cornell in the biggets clash of style in the tournament. Mizzou wants to run you out of the gym, Cornell wants to tie sweater's around their waists and invest their money. I like Mizzou on a basketball court, and I also think they wear out Marquette a round later.
My boys from Maryland take on California in a game that I can't pick objectively. I mean, it's the Terps, so I'm going to pick them. Plus, I haven't seen Cal play at all this year. Not once. I just kind of forgot about them. This could bite me in the ass later.
Memphis will pimp slap C-St.-N (Do you know what that stands for? Me neither) and then they'll also probably pimp slap my Terps. John Calipari is hard core; he thinks every game is a statement game, and he might be just a tad upset about not getting that top seed. Their style of play (stingy defense, quick scoring offense) is a great recipe for blowouts. I wonder if they could beat the Grizzlies right now?
Semifinals
Remember when UConn played Washington in 2006, and needed a buzzer beater to knock off Brandon Roy and the Huskies? Well, Brandon Roy doesn't play at Washington, so it won't be that close this time.
Memphis over Mizzou in a very fun to watch game. However, the Tigers force a lot of turnovers, and with a run and gun team, they'll force a lot more. Player to gain steam with national recognition and NBA Draft status at this point? Tyreke Evans. He's no Derrick Rose, and unfortunately he was compared to him often all year, but he's a standout player in a different way. He'll prove it this March.
Final
Memphis over UConn in a game that just has to happen. All the top seed talk, the Big East being all powerful versus Conference USA being a one-horse league, and Calipari against Calhoun. Seriously, can you think of two more pompous coaches going head-to-head? I can't, and I love it. I like Memphis, again, because of the defense, and because UConn has never been the same without Jerome Dyson. Their talent will carry them here, but no further.
FINAL FOUR
Semifinals
Memphis keeps it going by getting "revenge" over Kansas, even though the "revenge" won't put a "2008 National Champions" banner in their gym. In the past, I've hated Memphis because of the weak schedule, but the fact of the matter is, is that it just doesn't matter. Calipari knows how to teach his kids to go for the jugular - that's why they haven't stumbled in 61 straight Conference USA games. He expects perfection and nothing less. Next year, with two of the top four recruits in the country, they might be undefeated heading into the tournament, especially if Evans sticks around. You heard it here first.
Pittsburgh knocks off UNC, Tyler Hansbrough will cry, and his dad will hug him at midcourt in a moment that CBS will try to turn into the final scene of "Friday Night Lights." Hansbrough is a great college player, but there is no worse matchup for him than a big ol' bruiser down low. Cough, DeJuan Blair, cough. Levance Fields will have the game of his life, and he'll break the record for most fist-pumping-on-his-chest moves in one game.
Finals
Pittsburgh over Memphis. All season long I just haven't been able to get off the Panthers. They have so much going for them on the court that is obvious: they finally learned how to win big games on the road by slaying Calhoun's boys in Storrs, and they even have senior leaders in Sam Young, Levance Fields, and Tyrell Biggs. Who the hell has senior leadership anymore? Aside from that, they have the karma factor. Coach Jamie Dixon is one of the best and most underrated coaches in sports, and his sister's death from a couple years ago will provide the spiritual motivation. They even have Jermaine Dixon, Juan "Shining Moment" Dixon's cousin. You don't think they've been on the phone like 100 times in the past month? The Final Four is in Detroit, a blue-collar town much like Pittsburgh, where the Steelers even won the Super Bowl four years ago. It just all seems to make sense.
Which is why it has no chance of happening. You're welcome fellow participants of Al's Pool!
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